Personal probabilities of probabilities
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Exponential Models: Approximations for Probabilities
Welch & Peers (1963) used a root-information prior to obtain posterior probabilities for a scalar parameter exponential model and showed that these Bayes probabilities had the confidence property to second order asymptotically. An important undercurrent of this indicates that the constant information reparameterization provides location model structure, for which the confidence property ...
متن کاملQuantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities
We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial pr...
متن کاملAnother View of the Classical Problem of Comparing Two Probabilities
The usual calculation of the P-value for the classical problem of comparing probabilities is not always accurate. This issue arose in the context of a legal dispute which depended on when some written material was written in a diary. The problem raises some issues on the foundations of statistical inference.
متن کاملProbabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities Ii
A dams's thesis about indicative conditionals is that their assertIlability goes by the conditional subjective probability of the consequent given the antecedent, in very much the same way that assertability normally goes by the subjective probability of truth.' The thesis is well established; the remaining question is how it may best be explained. The nicest explanation would be that the truth...
متن کاملProbabilities of counterfactuals and counterfactual probabilities
[NEEDS POLISHING; COMMENTS WELCOME]
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Theory and Decision
سال: 1975
ISSN: 0040-5833,1573-7187
DOI: 10.1007/bf00169102